Back Issues 11-20

TWO FORECASTING METHODS TO ASSESS FUTURE LABOR DEMAND: A CASE STUDY

Shu-Fen Liu*, I-Shou University, Taiwan (ROC)

*Corresponding Author: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Nai-Chieh Wei, I-Shou University, Taiwan (ROC), This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Yen-Chen Yeh, I-Shou University, Taiwan (ROC), This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Abstract

This study aims to predict the future labor demand with the proportional method and the trend extrapolation method. The proportional method was adopted to analyze the future demand for workforce based on the amount of future tasks. The study converted the amount of future tasks into the amount of future job tickets because the latter enjoys the following advantages: Utilizing job tickets can avoid the situations caused by variables such as employees' inertia and their familiarity with tasks. When different employees carry out the same task, they are required to complete the task on the same hourly basis. In contrast, the trend extrapolation method follows a different logic and uses last year's historical recruitment records as a reference to estimate the future labor demand. Under the premise of knowing the exact amount of future tasks, the empirical analysis results show that the proportional method can provide a more accurate prediction for future labor demand. However, the estimation ability of the trend extrapolation method is comparably limited. The study found the proportional method can obtain a more precise prediction on future labor demand when it is combined with job tickets. Consequently, it is concluded the proportional method is more suitable for long-term labor demand planning.

Keywords: proportional method, trend extrapolation method, job tickets

Attachments:

1212 Final.pdf

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